1998-Based Population Projections - Scotland

25th November 1999

1998-based population projections for Scotland are issued today. Commenting on the results, the Registrar General said "Under these latest projections, which reflect recent demographic trends, the population of Scotland is projected to continue falling, but at a slower rate than the previous 1996-based projections."

The figures show that:

The total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.12 million in 1998 to 5.06 million in 2021; The total population of Scotland is projected to fall from 5.12 million in 1998 to 5.06 million in 2021;
The number of children aged under 16 is projected to fall to 85 per cent of its 1998 level by the year 2021;
The number of people over pensionable age is projected to rise by 8 per cent to just under 1 million in 2021. (Without allowing for the change in the retirement age of women from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020, the number of people over pensionable age would have increased by 28 per cent between 1998 and 2021.)

Notes To News Editors

1. The Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General for Scotland, England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, produces population projections for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The latest projection is based on the Registrar General's mid-year population estimates for 1998, and replaces the previous 1996-based projections. The results of the projections become more uncertain the further ahead they are projected. Therefore the results concentrate on the period up to 2021, though longer-term projections to 2038 are available.

2. A short paper, The Projected Population of Scotland (1998-Based), providing some commentary on the results as well as further information on the methodology and assumptions used is available on the GROS website .

3. Corresponding information for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries is available from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) website (www.gad.gov.uk) or by contacting GAD.

4. The Registrar General will publish sub-national population projections for council and health board areas consistent with the national projections in March 2000.

5. More detailed breakdowns of the results presented above, by age and sex, are available from GROS statistics customer services. For further information please contact Statistics Customer Services using our Contact form.