Scotland’s Population to Top 5.5 Million

21 October 2009

Scotland’s population is projected to rise from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.36 million in 2018 and to 5.54 million in 2033, according to the Projected Population of Scotland (2008-based), a report issued today by the Registrar General for Scotland.

Commenting on the results, the Registrar General Duncan Macniven said:

“These latest projections suggest a bigger rise in Scotland’s population than we expected when we published our last projections only 2 years ago. That is because the rise in the birth rate has continued and migration, though slightly lower than before, has stayed at a relatively high level. That raises the starting-point for our new figures, and also suggests that Scotland’s population will continue to be boosted by births and migration.”

”Scotland’s highest ever population, 5.25 million in 1974, is now likely to be exceeded as early as 2012.”

The report shows that:

the population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.17 million in 2008 to 5.36 million in 2018 and to continue to rise to 5.54 million in 2033 – an increase of 7 per cent over the 25 year period;
between 2008 and 2018 the number of children aged under 16 is projected to increase by 1 per cent from 0.91 to 0.92 million. It is then projected to decrease to 0.90 million in 2033 (a 1.5 per cent decrease compared to 2008);

the number of people of working age is projected to increase from 3.24 million in 2008 to 3.36 million in 2018 (an increase of 4 per cent). It is then projected to fall to 3.31 million in 2033 (an increase of around 2 per cent compared to 2008);

the number of people of pensionable age is projected to rise from 1.02 million to 1.07 million in 2018 (an increase of 6 per cent). It is then projected to rise more rapidly, reaching 1.34 million in 2033 (an increase of around 31 per cent compared to 2008);

the number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by around 23 per cent from 0.39 million in 2008 to 0.48 million in 2018. It is then projected to continue rising, reaching 0.72 million in 2033 - an increase of 84 per cent over the 25 year period; and

the dependency ratio – the ratio of persons aged under 16 or over pensionable age to those of working age – is projected to rise from around 60 per 100 in 2008 to 68 per 100 working age population in 2033;

The new projections are based on the estimated population of Scotland in mid-2008. They replace previous projections based on the mid-2006 estimates. The projections show what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based largely on past trends and do not take account of any future changes as a result of policy initiatives.