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Registrar General Reports on Deaths Last Winter

13 October 2009

New figures released today by the Registrar General show that there were more deaths in Scotland last winter than in the previous one – but that the long-term trend is downward.

There were 20,532 deaths in Scotland in the four months of winter 2008/09 (December to March), compared with 19,900 in winter 2007/08. Despite the rise, the figure for winter 2008/09 was close to the average of 20,429 for the eight previous winters, when the number of deaths varied between 19,651 (winter 2005/06) and 21,058 (winter 2002/03).

Speaking about the publication of "Increased Winter Mortality in Scotland 2008/09", the Registrar General for Scotland, Duncan Macniven, said:

“Last winter, the seasonal increase in the number of deaths was higher than in the previous winter, and the highest since the winter of 1999/2000.

"But the long-term trend is clearly downward. We have calculated these figures for the last 58 winters – and the most recent nine winters have had four of the six lowest numbers of additional deaths.

“There is no single common cause behind the additional deaths in the winter. Very few are caused by hypothermia. Most are from respiratory and circulatory diseases such as pneumonia, coronary heart disease and stroke. In only a small proportion of deaths is influenza recorded as the underlying cause.”

The 20,532 deaths in the four winter months of 2008/09 exceeded both the 17,075 deaths in the preceding four-month period and the 16,969 deaths in the following four-month period. The seasonal difference (comparing the four winter months with the average of the four-month periods before and after the winter) was 3,510 for the winter of 2008/09 – compared with 2,180 for the winter of 2007/08. Since the winter of 1951/52 when current figures began, the lowest seasonal difference was for the winter of 2005/06 (1,780), the second lowest was for the winter of 2001/02 (1,840), and the fifth and sixth lowest were in 2007/08 and 2000/01 (2,180 and 2,220, respectively).